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India eyes wheat exports of 11 mil-12 mil mt in MY 2022-23 on Black Sea disruptions
Apr 13, 2022

India is likely to step up its wheat exports in marketing year 2022-23 (April-March) after sellers shipped large volumes in MY2021-22, a move aimed at capitalizing on the huge supply gap following the disruption in the Black Sea region, market sources told S&P Global Commodity Insights.
 
Market participants expected India's wheat exports to be around 11 million-12 million mt in MY 2022-23 if tight supplies and trade disruptions for major wheat exporters continue.
 
India has already contracted 4 million mt for exports through April-August, over 50% of the volumes the country shipped in MY 2021-22, according to traders.
 
India's wheat exports reached an all-time high of 7.85 million mt in MY 2021-22, up from 2.1 million mt in the previous year, traders said.
 
India's accelerating wheat export program is also getting a push from the Indian government as it tries to make a mark in global trade. India traditionally is not a huge wheat exporter even though it is the world's second-largest wheat producer and holds around 9% of global stocks.
 
India has recently emerged as a key supplier of wheat to countries like Egypt, Iran, Bangladesh and Indonesia, which were largely dependent on Ukrainian wheat to meet their consumption.
 
Since the Russian invasion began, supplies from the Black Sea region paused and key wheat importers have been looking for cheap import sources to meet their domestic demand.
 
The Black Sea region accounts for around 26% of global wheat trade, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
 
India's wheat exports will hinge on global factors, including export prices and tight supplies from key producing regions.
 
'If the supplies from the Black Sea region remain largely muted, Indian traders can go ahead with their bullish export campaign,' a Delhi-based trader said.
 
India also has the advantage of lower export prices compared with other key exporters like Australia, Canada, the EU and the US.
 
According to trade sources, India is exporting wheat at $350-$360/mt, which is lower than wheat from other origins.
 
According to data from S&P Global, Australian Premium White wheat was assessed at $387/mt April 11, up $2 on the day. Similarly, the FOB prices of EU 11.5% protein wheat were assessed at $394/mt April 11, down $2 on the day.
    
www.spglobal.com

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