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India's strong economy means RBI can hike rates once again
Aug 26, 2022
India's strong economic growth offers room for the Reserve Bank of India to raise rates by another 60 basis points as the central bank seeks to stamp out high inflation, DBS Group Research said in a note on Thursday.
India's gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter of current fiscal year likely surged 16% year-on-year based on most leading indicators, the research house estimated. Favourable base effect after the onset of Delta coronavirus variant last year will additionally lift the year-on-year GDP numbers, Radhika Rao, senior economist at DBS Group Research, wrote in the note.
It expects India's first quarter (April-June) growth to be at 16 per cent. The official GDP is expected to be issued on August 31. It maintains an overall FY23 growth forecast at 7 per cent, which will see India emerge as the fastest-growing economy in Asia this year.
Broad-based improvement in vaccination rates and relaxation of lockdowns benefited urban consumption, while unemployment rates returned to pre-pandemic levels, Rao said. On the investment side, 'lead indicators have been encouraging.'
India's retail inflation rate has remained above RBI's upper tolerance limit for seven straight months.
'Public capex is likely to be a bigger support in this cycle as private sector participation might be in the slow lane, due to rising input prices and renewed uncertainty over the global growth outlook,' Rao wrote.
For the record, the monetary policy committee of the RBI in its latest meeting raised the repo rate by 50 basis points to 5.40 per cent in order to contain the persistently high inflation. The latest hike took the repo rate above pre-pandemic levels of 5.15 per cent.
Raising interest rate typically suppresses demand in the economy, thereby helping inflation to decline. India's retail inflation has been over the RBI's upper tolerance band of 6 per cent for the seventh consecutive month in a row now.
In line with the global trend of monetary policy tightening to cool off inflation, the RBI has so far hiked the key repo rate -- the rate at which the central bank of a country lends money to commercial banks -- by 140 basis points in three instances.
'With 140 basis points worth tightening behind us, we look for 60 basis points more hikes in the repo rate within FY23. Our call is for 35 basis points hike in September followed by another 25 basis points in December to take the repo rate to 6.0 per cent, before settling into an extended pause,' the report added.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
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