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UNCTAD expects global economic growth for 2023 to slow down to 2.4%.
Oct 05, 2023
The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) expects growth of the world economic output to decelerate to 2.4% in 2023, before registering a small uptick to 2.5% in 2024.
In its trade and development report issued Wednesday, the multilateral body called for a change in policy direction, including by leading central banks, and accompanying institutional reforms promised during the Covid-19 crisis to avert a lost decade.
'The global economy is flying at 'stall speed', with projected growth in 2023 of 2.4%, meeting the conventional criteria for a global recession. The entire global economy, except East and Central Asia, has slowed since 2022,' UNCTAD said.
It forecasts India to grow 6.6% in 2023 and 6.2% in 2024.
Highlighting that globally, the post-pandemic recovery is divergent, it said: 'While some economies, including Brazil, China, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia and the United States have demonstrated resilience in 2023, others face more formidable challenges'.
In India, the external sector – alongside the private and government sector – has contributed to domestic growth, partly helped by many countries redirecting trade flows away from the Russian Federation, with which India maintains a direct relationship, the Geneva-based organisation said.
While growth in 2022 moved back in line with pre-pandemic rates, it is expected to continue into next year, according to the report.
'However, other indicators still suggest caution: with rates of unemployment still standing at 8.5% in June 2023, employment remains disappointingly low by historical standards. Inequality has also significantly increased – as suggested by data on real wages and the labour share – which could hinder growth,' UNCTAD said.
It highlighted that India’s 10 largest firms account for 8% of its total exports, although the total number of exporting firms exceeded 1,23,000 in 2021.
As per the report, in 2022, South-South trade accounted for around 54% of South’s total trade. South-South trade has also grown steadily in food, fuel, ores and metals, and fertilizers, with many developing countries, including Brazil, China, India, Indonesia and Thailand playing major roles.
Despite the announced rounds of production cuts by OPEC+ countries in April 2023 – representing a reduction of over 1 million barrels per day – a significant increase in oil production from non-OPEC+ countries as well as a substantial release of strategic petroleum reserves by OECD member countries has more than offset the agreed OPEC+ cuts.
For its part, western sanctions on Russian crude exports have mostly resulted in redirecting these flows to countries like China and India at a discounted price, meaning that their impact on global oil supplies has been minimal while also having a downward influence on global crude prices, the UNCTAD noted.
Debt worries
As per the report, the global economy is at a crossroads, where divergent growth paths, widening inequalities, growing market concentration and mounting debt burdens cast shadows on its future.
'Debt burdens, the silent weight on many developing countries, remain a major concern,' it cautioned and added that S
soaring debt requires urgent multilateral solutions and a sovereign debt restructuring mechanism.
Rising interest rates, weakening currencies and sluggish export growth have combined to squeeze the fiscal space for essential needs, transforming the growing debt service burden into an unfolding development crisis.
The multilateral body called for coordination between national and supranational authorities to manage inflationary pressures and ensure price stability, foster an environment conducive to investment-led growth, implement measures to reduce income disparities, improve real wages and reinforce social protection systems.
It said that the role of central banks needs to be expanded beyond inflation targeting to include a broader focus on long-term economic sustainability.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
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