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Bright spot: UNCTAD raises India growth estimate to 6.6% for 2023.
Oct 05, 2023

The UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) upped India's 2023 economic growth forecast to 6.6% from 6% predicted in April. However, it expects the country's growth to slow to 6.2% in 2024.
 
In its trade and development report issued Wednesday, the UNCTAD said its expects growth of the world economic output to decelerate to 2.4% in 2023 but register a small uptick to 2.5% in 2024.
 
This comes a day after the World Bank projected India's economy to grow 6.3% in FY24. India's FY23 economic growth was 7.2%.
 
The multilateral body called for a change in policy direction, including by leading central banks, and accompanying institutional reforms promised during the Covid-19 crisis to avert a lost decade.
 
'The global economy is flying at 'stall speed', with projected growth in 2023 of 2.4%, meeting the conventional criteria for a global recession. The entire global economy, except East and Central Asia, has slowed since 2022,' UNCTAD said.
 
Highlighting that globally, the post-pandemic recovery is divergent, it said: 'While some economies, including Brazil, China, India, Japan, Mexico, Russia and the United States, have demonstrated resilience in 2023, others face more formidable challenges'.
 
In India, the external sector-alongside the private and government sector-has contributed to domestic growth, partly helped by many countries redirecting trade flows away from the Russian Federation, with which India maintains a direct relationship, the Geneva-based organisation said.
 
While growth in 2022 moved back in line with pre-pandemic rates, it is expected to continue into next year, according to the report.
 
'However, other indicators still suggest caution: with rates of unemployment still standing at 8.5% in June 2023, employment remains disappointingly low by historical standards. Inequality has also significantly increased - as suggested by data on real wages and the labour share-which could hinder growth,' UNCTAD said.
 
It highlighted that India's 10 largest firms account for 8% of its total exports, although the total number of exporting firms exceeded 123,000 in 2021.
 
As per the report, South-South trade accounted for around 54% of South's total trade in 2022.
    
economictimes.indiatimes.com

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