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India seen fastest growing among 7 largest emerging & developing economies: World Bank.
Jan 11, 2023
The World Bank on Tuesday said that India is expected to be the fastest growing economy of the seven largest emerging-market and developing economies (EMDEs) though its economic growth is projected to slow to 6.9% in FY23 and 6.6% in FY24 from 8.7% in 2021-22.
'The slowdown in the global economy and rising uncertainty will weigh on export and investment growth. Governments increased infrastructure spending and various business facilitation measures, however will crowd-in private investment and support the expansion of manufacturing capacity,'
the World Bank’s said in its latest Global Economic Prospects report.
The global economy is projected to grow by 1.7% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2024, according to the multilateral lender.
'India is expected to be the fastest growing economy of the seven largest EMDEs,' it said, adding that monetary and fiscal tightening over the forecast horizon is expected to be less pronounced than in much of the rest of the (South Asia) region, as adequate policy buffers have provided breathing room to support the ongoing recovery and boost public investment.
The Bank said that extreme weather can also complicate the implementation of macroeconomic policies in many countries.
'For example, in India, more erratic monsoon rains have translated into more volatile food prices, destabilising households’ inflation expectations, undermining the ability to forecast inflation, and muddling the formulation of monetary policy,' it noted.
Global downturn
The Bank said that the 'sharp downturn' in global growth is expected to be widespread, with forecasts in 2023 revised down for 95% of advanced economies and nearly 70% of emerging market and developing economies and that global growth may decelerate sharply in 2023 to its third weakest pace in nearly three decades, cautioning that the world economy is 'perilously close' to falling into recession.
'Further negative shocks- such as higher inflation, even tighter policy, financial stress, deeper weakness in major economies, or rising geopolitical tensions-could push the global economy into recession. This would mark the first time in more than 80 years that two global recessions have occurred within the same decade,' the Bank warned.
Over the next two years, per-capita income growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to average 2.8%, a full percentage point lower than the 2010-2019 average.
Growth in advanced economies is projected to slow to 0.5% in 2023. from 2.5% in 2022.. In the United States, growth is forecast to fall to 0.5% in 2023- 1.9 percentage points below previous forecasts and the weakest performance outside of official recessions since 1970 while the euro-area growth is expected at zero percent—a downward revision of 1.9 percentage points. In China, growth is projected at 4.3% in 2023—0.9 percentage point below previous forecasts.
Excluding China, the Bank said that growth in EMDEs is expected to decelerate to 2.7% in 2023 from 3.8% in 2022, reflecting significantly weaker external demand compounded by high inflation, currency depreciation, tighter financing conditions, and other domestic headwinds.
'By the end of 2024, GDP levels in emerging and developing economies will be roughly 6% below levels expected before the pandemic. Although global inflation is expected to moderate, it will remain above pre-pandemic levels,' World Bank said.
In India, which accounts for three-fourths of the region’s output, growth expanded by 9.7% on an annual basis in the first half of FY23, reflecting strong private consumption and fixed investment growth.
Growth in South Asia is projected to slow to 5.5% in 2023 on slowing external demand and tightening financial conditions before picking up slightly to 5.8% in 2024 but this pace reflects still 'robust growth in India, Maldives, and Nepal offsetting the effects of the floods in Pakistan and the economic and political crises in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka'. The deteriorating global environment, however, will weigh on investment in the region, the Bank cautioned.
economictimes.indiatimes.com
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