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FIEO sees export growth slowing in FY23, aims for $460-475 billion.
Dec 24, 2021
India’s exports growth may slow to 15-17.5% in FY23 but containment of Covid-19 through massive vaccination across the globe and creation of required capacity will be the decisive factors, the country’s top exporters body has said.
The Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO) on Thursday said that FY22 is expected to end with merchandise exports of $400 billion but the aim for the next fiscal is $460-475 billion.
India’s exports in FY21 were $290.6 billion and the country is expected to clock $400 billion this fiscal, a growth of 37.6%.
Since $400 billion would be a high base for FY23, an export growth of 30-35% on such numbers would be difficult particularly as additional exports may require augmenting the capacity as well, FIEO said in a statement.
'Looking into the emergence of the new variants and supply side challenges at this point of time, we would like to be a little conservative and will aim for an export of $460-475 billion during the next fiscal,' said FIEO President, A Sakthivel.
Much will depend on the containment of Covid-19 through massive vaccination across the globe and creation of required capacity, which would decide whether India should look for 15-20% growth or even more for the next financial year, according to the statement.
'Moreover, the spectacular increase in global trade by about 22%, buoyed by high prices of commodities, as witnessed in 2021 will not be there to provide the tail wind to our exports,' he said, highlighting the emergence of the new variants and supply side challenges.
Sakthivel said the good thing with India’s exports has been a very balanced growth across sectors both in traditional exports as well as sunrise sectors of exports during the current fiscal.
'We are hopeful that the same trend will continue particularly as the order booking position of all exporters are extremely encouraging and China plus one policy of global companies is definitely helping our exports,' he said.
Geographic spread
As per FIEO, a trend of India’s exports during the current year shows that in the first seven months of the current fiscal, when the overall exports grew by about 59%, almost all regions showed a growth rate of about 60% or more except for ASEAN, North East Asia and CIS countries.
Therefore, in the next year as well, exports growth will be widespread and exports to NAFTA, Europe, Middle-East, Oceania will continue to boom particularly and India should look at concluding trade pacts with the UK, UAE, Canada and Australia, and a regional economic alliance with EU, GCC (UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Qatar and Kuwait), SACU (South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, Lesotho and Eswatini) and other economic regions.
The federation said that lack of capacity is one of the major concerns to meet the increasing demand. Moreover, with increase in the prices of inputs, skyrocketing freight and delays in shipments and payments have resulted in the need for additional credit.
'While container shortage has eased due to peak season supplies for Christmas, New Year and Chinese New Year getting over, the same is likely to compound once countries open up after the holiday seasons particularly if the new variant is not brought under control,' Sakthivel said.
FIEO sought a push to container manufacturing in the country particularly as there is a need for a large number of containers for inland coastal shipping.
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