The Westin Gurgaon, New Delhi, is hosting a Turkish Food Festival at Seasonal Tastes, their all-day dining restaurant, with renowned expat Chef Mehmet Altindag, who will be bringing together a delightful spread of authentic delicacies from his homeland; till April 23, 2023. Altindag has an experience of over three decades, working across Europe, and possesses an extensive and in-depth knowledge and expertise of Turkish cuisine.

 

Be it the spice markets of Istanbul, the country’s rich traditional heritage or the appetising cuisine, the festival is sure to transport you to the land of the Turks in all its magnificence. The food festival will include a delectable buffet spread, with a specially curated menu comprising of Turkish delicacies such as Babaganoush mezze, Pepper Borane Mezze and Tzselaniki mezze, paired with ChilliEzme, Sarai Cheze, Crete Dip, Hummus  and Beetroot Dip, amongst others.

 

The buffet will also see an assortment of Kebabs and Casseroles, including the Adana Lamb Kebab, Pistachio Lamb Kebab, Tavuk Chicken Sis and the Mushroom and Sheese Casserole amongst others. To add a sweet touch to your meal, the menu also includes Chef Altindag’s signature dessert, Fig Muhallebi, a Turkish pudding made with rice and milk with a fresh fig infusion. The event was inaugurated by Firat Sunel, Ambassador Extraordinary & Plenipotentiary, Embassy of the Republic of Turkiye.

 

On this occasion, cluster general manager Rahul Puri said, 'It was a pleasure to have hosted H.E. Firat Sunel for the inaugural ceremony of the Turkish Food Festival that commences today at Seasonal tastes, The Westin Gurgaon New Delhi; in collaboration with Turkish Airlines. Helmed by our renowned expat Chef Mehmet Altindag, the festival is sure to transport you to the land of the Turks in all its magnificence.'

India has already emerged as the largest milk-producing nation in the world, and if it has to capture overseas markets for its surplus milk, then the country must be export competitive, Niti Aayog member Ramesh Chand has said.

 

Mr. Chand in a working paper further said India's dairy industry has been opposing any free trade agreement that involves liberalisation of trade (import) in dairy products.

 

'However, if we have to capture overseas markets for disposal of the future surplus of milk in the country then we must be export competitive.

 

'Being export competitive requires higher competitiveness than competing with imports,' he said.

 

According to Mr. Chand, a country cannot be export competitive if it is unable to compete with imports and this issue is crucial for the future growth of the dairy industry in India.

 

While noting that the dairy industry must prepare for channelising some domestic production to overseas markets, he suggested that it is better if it is done after processing various products rather than liquid milk alone.

 

'This will require some change in investment in the dairy industry, including the value chain. India can also tap some high-end markets if it can address milk quality and livestock health,' he said.

 

The goal and vision of the dairy industry for the next 25 years should be to make India the largest exporter of dairy products, Mr. Chand suggested.

 

'This is a tall order but, looking at the past achievements of the dairy sector, it looks attainable though challenging,' he opined.

 

Exports are less than 0.5 per cent of the total domestic milk production. World dairy export in 2021 was valued at $63 billion, whereas India's export was only $392 million (0.62 per cent).

 

Mr. Chand pointed out that the recent data on milk output shows an annual growth rate of 5.3 per cent. It is important to mention that the growth rate in milk production accelerated after 2005, when the emphasis shifted from exotic breeds to indigenous breeds.

 

Per capita milk production in India has now exceeded the recommended dietary level, as suggested by NIN-ICMR, which is 377 grams per person per day.

 

According to Chand, the dairy sector faces three major challenges -- low productivity of milch animals, increased emission of greenhouse gases by the ruminants, having a detrimental effect on climate change and very low share of export.

 

The dairy sector in India has shown very impressive growth since the beginning of Operation Flood launched in 1970. Before this, milk production was not even keeping pace with the growth in population in the country.

 

Because of this, per capita milk output declined from 132 grams in 1955-56 to 110 grams in 1973-74. This led to a serious shortage of milk and milk products in the country, like a shortage of staple food during the mid-1960s, which led the country to go for adoption of green revolution technology.

India has said that bio-fortified crop varieties offer quicker solution to improve health and address nutrition issues of women and children and emerging digital technologies should be utilised to usher in ease of farming across the G20 countries and the world.

 

Inaugurating the 3-day G20 Meeting of Agricultural Chief Scientists (MACS) in Varanasi on Monday, Minister of State for Civil Aviation, road transport and highways VK Singh said India’s G20 presidency theme ‘One Earth, One Family, One Future’ signifies collective efforts for achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs).

 

He emphasised that the pan-India presence of Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) institutes and krishi vigyan kendras (KVKs) with domain expertise for crops, horticulture, livestock, fisheries, soil and water expertise/ farm machineries, and farmers outreach is being utilised to provide ICT interface with plants, animals, man and machine, according to an official statement.

 

The minister urged that the G-20 countries to look into diverse areas of sustainable practices that promote diversification of crop production systems, efficient utilisation of water resources and fertilisers, assimilation of horticulture practices, soil, health management, and post-harvest management of crops, among others.

 

focus on millets

He also stated that the International Year of the Millets 2023 will help highlight the benefits of millets in the world and India has made it a people’s movement.

 

About 80 delegates from G20 member states — Australia, Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, France , Germany, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Republic of Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the USA and European Union — are participating in the meeting.

 

Representatives from guest countries, viz. Bangladesh, Egypt, Mauritius, Netherlands, Nigeria, Oman, Singapore, Spain, the UAE, Vietnam and several international organisations including United Nations, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Health Organization, World Trade Organization, etc are also invited at the event.

India’s rice exports have crossed a record $11 billion in 2022-23, an increase of 16% from FY22. The volume of shipment, however, remained around the same level as last year at 21 million tonne (MT).

 

Officials attribute the spike in rice exports to factors such as robust global demand, especially from West Asian countries, Africa and Europe, and flood that hit a large chunk of paddy crop in Pakistan, a major grain exporter.

 

In FY22, India, which has an around 45% share in global rice trade, exported more than 21 MT of rice valued at $9.6 billion.

 

The increased realisation in rice exports has been achieved despite India last year banning broken rice shipment and the imposition of exports tax of 20% on white rice.

 

According to preliminary estimates, India has shipped $11.14 billion of rice, which includes basmati ($5 billion) and non-basmati ($6.14 billion) during FY23.

 

In terms of volume, the country has exported 4.9 MT of aromatic and long grain basmati and 16.1 MT of non-basmati rice.

 

India annually exports 4.5-5 MT of basmati rice and has an 80% share in the global trade of aromatic rice.

 

'Demand for rice has been robust because of resumption of shipment to Iran and spike in demand in Gulf countries especially from Saudi Arabia, Iran, UAE and others for the ongoing Ramadan months,' K Kaul, senior executive director, All India Rice Exporters’ Association, told FE.

 

India has been the world’s largest exporter of rice since 2012. Currently, India exports more rice than the combined shipments of the next three largest exporters – Thailand, Vietnam and Pakistan.

 

The United States department of agriculture (USDA), in its April 2023 crop outlook, has stated, 'India’s prices are the most competitive among global suppliers and its total supply of rice is near-record high.' It has also stated that India’s price quotes for 5% broken-kernel rice were reported at $434 this month and are virtually unchanged since late January.

 

'Competitive pricing have ensured a surge in rice exports in the last fiscal and adherence to quality parameters has resulted in a significant demand for Indian rice with the grain being shipped to more than 75 countries,' M Angamuthu, chairman, Agricultural and Processed Food Products Development Authority, said.

 

In September, India had imposed a ban on broken rice exports and put a 20% export tariff on the non-basmati and non-parboiled rice, a measure aimed at improving domestic supplies due to the expectation of a decline in production in the 2022-23 crop season (July-June).

 

However, the fear of loss of production was allayed with the agriculture ministry estimating a record rice output of 130.83 MT in the 2022-23 crop year.

 

In terms of volume, Bangladesh, China, Benin, Nepal and Iran are five major export destinations for rice. Geographical Indication (GI) tagged basmati rice is a premium variety cultivated in the Himalayan foothills, mostly in Punjab, Haryana, western Uttar Pradesh and Jammu & Kashmir.

The commerce ministry on Monday laid out a procedure for applying for amnesty scheme for one-time settlement of default in export obligation by certain exporters. The directorate general of foreign trade (DGFT), under the ministry, directed the regional authorities to process any such applications within three working days.

 

'Application for AA (advance authorisation)/EPCG (export promotion for capital goods) discharge/closure shall be filled online by logging onto the DGFT website and navigating to services,' the DGFT said in a policy circular.

 

The government announced the new foreign trade policy (FTP) on March 31. It included an amnesty scheme for exporters for one-time settlement of default in export obligation by the holders of advance and EPCG (export promotion for capital goods) authorisations.

 

Under the scheme, all pending cases of the default in meeting export obligation (EO) of certain authorisations can be regularised by the authorisation holder on payment of all customs duties that were exempted in proportion to unfulfilled EO and interest at the rate of 100 per cent of such duties exempted.

 

In another trade notice, the DGFT notified new HSN codes for technical textiles items.

 

In trade parlance, every product is categorised under an HSN code (Harmonised System of Nomenclature). It helps in systematic classification of goods across the globe.

 

It said that despite having specific codes for technical textiles, it has been noted that imports/exports have not been booked under correct HS codes and the trade seems to be still being booked under other available codes.

 

'Accordingly, the matter has been reviewed in consultation with the textiles ministry and it is reiterated that all importers/exporters should file their bill of entry/shipping bill with specific HSN codes available for man-made fibre and technical textiles under...and to avoid using any other codes,' it said.

 

A list of 32 codes has been notified to facilitate the industry for easy recognition and helping them to book their import and exports under correct product category.

 

It asked the industry to suggest more codes, if they require.

India is going to have solid economic growth, but it will not be nearly as solid as if global conditions were like in the early 2000s, said World Bank chief economist and senior vice president for development economics, Indermit Gill. In an interview to ET's Deepshikha Sikarwar, Gill, who is the second Indian chief economist at World Bank, said isolated bank failures won’t be a danger to India, but if it's a generalised banking crisis, then that could lead to a global recession and a noticeable slowdown in India. Gill, who spearheaded the influential 2009 World Development Report on economic geography and is known for introducing the concept of the 'middle-income trap,' said there's less work, there's less investment and there's less trade and cautioned that if you have less of those three things there's no other outcome than slower economic growth, unless governments do something about it soon. Edited excerpts:

 

The world economy, as per the World Bank, is staring at a ‘lost decade.’ Can policy interventions help recoup some ground when new challenges are cropping up?

The last time the world had a lost decade--or at least large parts of the world lost a decade of development--was in the 1980s. Three, four things that happened then are like what's happening now. One of them was oil price hikes. Then we started to get interest rate hikes in the US; they were faster and greater than what we've seen now. This left a trail of developing countries bankrupt because the cost of borrowing went up. That's what we worry about today since we are starting to see the same sort of things. Growth is slow and we have high inflation. As a result, monetary policy must become progressively tighter. While the interest rate hikes are not as big this time around, we don't have fiscal policy instruments because many countries, especially the advanced economies, spent a lot during the pandemic.

 

What about India…

Fortunately for India, we are going to have solid economic growth. But it will not be nearly as solid as we might have expected if global conditions were more like what they were in the early 2000s. Countries like India did better fiscally (during the pandemic). Many emerging market economies like India didn't spend a whole lot though there were pressures on the finance minister to spend more. I think she did well to not overspend. As a result, we now have a stable fiscal situation.

 

The developed world banking crisis looks contained for now, but can further rise in interest rates cause another turbulence and will there be a spillover impact on the emerging world?

The answer is yes and yes. These things are hard to forecast. For example, if you go back to the time of the global financial crisis, we had bank failures interspersed by periods of optimism. Bear Stearns failed, then things looked contained for nearly 12 months, and then Lehman happened. Sometimes it takes a while for something that might seem to be an isolated banking crisis to turn into something more generalized. I don't think we can rule that out. If that happens, I don't believe there will be serious financial contagion to countries like India. But there will be economic contagion; in the sense that slower growth in the world will affect every economy—even well-managed ones. While this is unlikely, you can't rule out the likelihood of a global recession. Global recession, by the way, is if global GDP growth falls below 1 percent. The world economy is skirting pretty close to that edge. And if you have something like that, then it's going to be very hard for India to not be affected. If you have isolated bank failures, I don't think that's a danger to India. But if it's a generalised banking crisis, then that could lead to a global recession and a noticeable slowdown in India.

 

Inflation has emerged as a key challenge over the past few months. OPEC’s decision to cut output has made it tougher. How do you see the situation?

I think there is a tendency to over interpret each of these events. When China opened, there was this sudden euphoria. You started to see some things improving again, and started to see optimism. Then you had these bank failures and suddenly, pessimism returned. Then we thought that these financial risks are contained, and expectations started to moderate again. Most recently, we have this news about OPEC plus cutting production and the world starts to go into a funk. I think people are overinterpreting this too, perhaps because they were building in lower commodity prices into their forecasts and suddenly, they went up. I don't think we should pay too much attention to each of these events. It would be better to see what's happening behind these economic gyrations. So, what's happening to GDP growth in advanced economies? What is happening to potential growth in emerging markets? And, when you do this, it's not an encouraging picture.

 

Look at growth in the big emerging economies. There is a rebound for China, which will go from about 3% growth last year, which was one of its lowest growth performances in a few decades, to something more normal in a rebound; closer to 5%. But China’s growth is masking a general decline in emerging market growth rates, which will decline if you exclude China. So, one must look beyond these sorts of one-off events. This is what worries us a lot more. At the World Bank, we have just finished a detailed report on potential growth across the world—in advanced economies, in middle-income countries, and in low-income countries. It’s called 'Falling Long-Term Growth Prospects'—nothing subtle about the title, and it should get everyone worried. Whichever way you look at it, you find potential growth rates are going down compared to the first decade of this millennium. There's less work, there's less investment and there's less trade. And if you have less of those three things, there's no other outcome than slower economic growth, unless governments do something about it soon.

 

Are we done with interest rate increases?

Essentially, tighter monetary policy is trying to make real interest rates positive. If you examine real interest rates, you find three different trends. The first is that in the case of countries like India, real interest rates were positive even before these hikes and they've gone up over the last year. In the case of the US, real interest rates were negative before these hikes, and now they are positive but still low. In the case of the Euro area, they were negative before and they are still negative. So, we should expect to see higher interest rates in Europe, more so than in the US. Countries like India and Indonesia and others were quicker to respond to inflationary pressures compared to the Fed and the European Central Bank. They are not playing catch-up now. What they are doing is that they are responding to the pressures that are coming their way; because the US Fed is playing catch up and the European Central Bank is playing catch up.

 

You spoke about potential growth. What can the world do to lift it amid multifarious challenges at this juncture including geopolitics and climate change?

I'll start with the things that could make it worse. Financial crises make matters worse, and the effects of a financial crisis last for the next 5 years. It is obvious that the first thing you must do is avoid a financial crisis. Central banks must walk this narrow path between trying to keep inflation down and being careful you don't risk a financial crisis on the other side. The second one is supply disruptions, like war. If the war spreads or if it becomes worse, all these bets are off. We must prioritise a quick end to the war in Europe. The third thing is pandemics and lockdowns. Those are shocks that one has to manage and manage them right as compared to the last time. I don't think we managed things well the last time; developing countries copycatted richer countries, without the public finances and private markets advanced economies had.

 

I don't think there's a quick fix to this, but there are fixes that actually can work over 2-4 years. The first is that in the parts of the world where you still have a lot of poverty, sub-Saharan Africa, or where you have serious employment problems, like the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia, you also have pools of human capital that are not being utilised. In general, female labour force participation in these places is low and somewhat stagnant. We have been much better at educating girls than encouraging women to participate more fully in the economy. But it does not have to be this way. We publish an annual report called 'Women, Business and the Law' and it details what can be done in countries like Turkey, India and Jordan. The recent experience in Saudi Arabia shows that you can improve these conditions quickly. Of course, you also need a robust economy, but some of these countries—most notably India, already have a robust economy.

 

The second one is that we must increase investment. Over the last three years, the investment climate has deteriorated because policymakers have stopped prioritising things like pro-business reforms. A lot of countries slowed down on that because they were doing other things, for very understandable reasons. But now one must get back to making conditions for business better and ask how we can most quickly prioritise private investment. An important part of the greater investment is predictability in fiscal policy, predictability in monetary policy, and so on. But there is more. We are working on a new report that measures the 'business readiness' of 180 countries: we call it the Business Ready Report, or B-Ready.

 

The third thing is to recognize that China is not going to be growing at 10% a year as it did in the early 2000s. It is going to be growing at less than half of that. It will be difficult for any other economy—even one as large and dynamic like India’s—to emulate that performance. But if we do a few things right, the global economy can recreate China in the aggregate. A big part of that is going to be India, but India is not going to be all of it. But imagine if India gets an extra one percentage point; Indonesia, which is doing well, gets another; Bangladesh gets it, Vietnam gets it, and Brazil and Mexico get it. A worldwide change in growth rates to bring you back the same potential growth rates that we had 10-15 years back. For that, you need one more thing: international trade. If we don't revive international trade, then you will not get this. Governments in the developing world should be giving the World Trade Organization a lot of support. So again, what every country needs is more work and more investment; but what will make it happen across the world is more trade.

 

You said India could be one of the countries that could provide that kind of growth. Can the existing policy framework support it? Also, one is hearing of ‘nearshoring’, ‘friend-shoring’ and emphasis on shifting supply chains. Can this really infuse efficiency and help global growth?

We don't really worry about India these days. India doesn't figure much in the international press. That's a wonderful thing because generally when a country figures prominently in the international press, it's usually not for a good thing. India is growing already at 6% and the questions are about how it can get to 8% or something near.

 

On your point about trade fragmentation, friend shoring, nearshoring etc., we must think about it in more simple terms, like China plus one. It's not so much a political problem as it is a diversification problem, because the world doesn’t want to put all its eggs in the China basket. It's not as if China won't participate in these value chains. Policy makers just want some redundancy built in, to the extent that things that have happened over the last few years don't happen again. In many things China plus one, equals India. You do find that there are lots of things that India could be taking advantage of, and India is taking advantage of. I’m so impressed by what Apple India has been doing, for example. You could question the pace of these changes in other parts of the Indian economy, you could say that we could be doing a lot more. We should be attracting a heck of a lot more rather than just iPhones and a few other things. But here one must sort of look not just at union government policies, but also state government policies. At this stage what I would really like to see in India is some states starting to do big and bold things about issues on the concurrent list -- labour reforms, land reforms. Many of the things that India needs to do now are not on the Union list and not entirely on the state list, they are on the concurrent list.

 

There is a big push from the government for capex in India. But private sector investment is yet to catch up. What do you think is holding it?

That's not just an India thing, that's everywhere. I think we have expectations of the private sector that are too high. We want the private sector to be working on problems that are of public interest rather than private profit. I don't think India is doing badly on this score. Those are the kinds of discussions that we have here in Washington all the time: how we can get much more private-sector participation in matters of public interest. You have options like public-private partnerships, loan syndication and green bonds. The evidence on all this is not particularly encouraging in other parts of the world, and India might actually be doing better than most. I would keep expectations modest, even in the case of India.

 

In terms of its trade engagement, how do you see the shift in India’s approach? Focus has now turned to trade agreements with large economic entities like the US and EU.

There is a very good report coming out soon from our India team called the Country Economic Memorandum and that answers questions like the one that you are asking. The general answer I would give is that India has been a little too passive about globalization. We think that the rules of globalization should be made somewhere else. But India is no longer a small economy. India has the G20 Presidency right now but, even if it didn't, India is an influential country. India has credibility in both camps, the ones that we are talking about, the ones that might threaten globalisation. I think that India should be much more active in setting the rules of globalization.

 

There are apprehensions that the US may slip into recession later this year. Is that a cost that must be paid for inflation or is it time to really pause monetary measures?

The last time that we ran our numbers we did not think that the US would go into recession. We thought that the US would narrowly avoid a recession. If it does not, that is what is called a 'hard landing,' in which you must start to shrink economic activity to cut inflation rates. But that has dangers of its own. Once you start to shrink economic activity, you increase the likelihood of businesses failing, which means that the banks that have loaned money to these businesses then will also get into trouble. We do not like to think about such scenarios just yet, because there are too many other problems already.

Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman attended the Plenary Meeting of the International Monetary and Financial Committee at the IMF Headquarters on Friday. She stated that the Indian economy is expected to grow at a rate of 7% in 2022-23, and emphasized that the country's strong economic performance is a result of a favorable domestic policy environment and the government's focus on structural reforms.

 

'Both the IMF and World Bank project India to be the fastest-growing major economy in 2023. The Indian economy will stay on course and is projected to grow at seven per cent in 2022-23, as per the Economic Survey 2022-23,' she said.

 

In a series of tweets from the Finance Ministry, Nirmala Sitharaman highlighted during her intervention that the COVID-19 pandemic has taught us the importance of digitalization, particularly Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI), in driving the global economy. She also pointed out that India's DPI has greatly improved access and facilitated the growth of a dynamic entrepreneurial ecosystem.

 

Referring to the global sovereign debt roundtable, the finance minister said it has demonstrated a constructive way forward with multi-stakeholder cooperation for other vulnerable countries, and India is pleased to be a part of the team that provided solutions for Sri Lanka and Surinam.

 

Sitharaman reiterated the commitment to exploring solutions through stakeholder engagements to pressing global challenges, which disproportionately harm the poorest and most vulnerable.

 

She further urged all the G20 members to continue to support multilateral efforts and emphasised engagement in positive dialogue to fight the challenge of global fragmentation.

Union minister of state for road transport & highways and civil aviation Gen (retired) VK Singh said that India is promoting millets in a mission mode due to their qualities and also to become a hub for its production and export.

 

Talking to reporters after addressing the inaugural session of the three-day G20 Meeting of Agriculture Chief Scientists (MACS) at a hotel here on Monday, Singh said, 'We are not only highlighting the nutritious and other qualities of millets, which are also called ‘Mota Anaj’ or ‘Shree Anna’, but also providing millet dishes in all the meetings of G20 being organised in India'.

 

'Millets are produced in 130 countries and are the base of agriculture in India,' he said, adding, 'Millets are known for climate resilience and could be easily produced even in adverse climatic conditions. They need less chemical fertilizers and their natural farming is possible. In view of all these facts, India is promoting millets.'

 

Singh said that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a vision to make India a hub of millet production and export. 'Focus of farmers will start shifting from cash crops like paddy and wheat with the growth in demand of millets. When the country’s agriculture scientists, who are best in the world, will start working on it, production of millets will start booming,' he added.

 

He said that through the platform of G20, India is showcasing its initiatives like food security, nutrition mission and others to enable other countries to take benefit from their concept.