Growing at a robust rate due to economic reforms in key sectors like digitisation and infrastructure, India has emerged as a star performer and is projected to contribute more than 16 per cent of the global growth, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.

 

'What we have been observing for quite some time now is that India has been growing at a very robust rate. It's one of the star performers when it comes to real growth when you look at peer countries. It’s one of the fastest growing large emerging markets and it's contributing, in our current projections, more than 16 per cent of global growth this year,' Nada Choueiri, the Mission of India at IMF, told PTI in an interview.

 

The IMF on Monday released its annual Article IV consultation with India, according to which the South Asian country, underpinned by prudent macroeconomic policies, is on track to be one of the fastest-growing major economies in the world this year.

 

Nonetheless, the economy is facing global headwinds, including a global growth slowdown in an increasingly fragmented world, Choueiri said.

 

There is a very strong push by the government to invest in infrastructure and develop the logistics that are needed for a solid basis for growth, Choueiri said.

 

India, she said, has a very large and young and growing population and thus has the potential to grow at stronger rates if this potential is harnessed through structural reforms.

 

The government has done several structural reforms, the flagship one being the digitalisation, which has been building up over many years and has put India on a strong platform for increased productivity and growth in the future.

 

The IMF in its annual report recommended that policy priorities should focus on replenishing fiscal buffers, securing price stability, maintaining financial stability, and accelerating inclusive growth through comprehensive structural reforms while preserving debt sustainability.

 

India’s economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic to become an important driver of global growth. After surging during FY2022/23, headline inflation has, on average, moderated although it remains volatile. Employment has surpassed the pre-pandemic level and the informal sector continues to dominate while formalisation has progressed, it said.

 

'The financial sector has been resilient, largely unaffected by global financial stress in early 2023. While the budget deficit has eased, public debt remains elevated, and fiscal buffers need to be rebuilt. Globally, India’s 2023 G20 presidency has demonstrated the country’s important role in advancing multilateral policy priorities,' it said.

 

'On the political front, general elections are expected in April 2024. Macroeconomic policies have been partly in line with the past IMF staff advice,' the report said.

 

India has the potential to experience higher growth contributed by additional labour and human capital if comprehensive reforms are implemented. Furthermore, the country’s foundational digital public infrastructure has significant potential to raise total factor productivity by fostering innovation and competition, accelerating financial inclusion, and boosting public sector efficiency.

 

Observing that GDP growth reached 7.2 per cent in fiscal 2022/23, moderating from 9.1 per cent in FY2021/22, the IMF said growth has been supported by robust consumption stemming from pent-up demand of households and strong investment, with historically high levels of public capital expenditure.

 

Strong global demand for outsourcing induced by the pandemic pushed up service export growth to a decade high in FY2022/23, raising net exports. Services exports lost some momentum in early FY2023/24, largely reflecting demand slowdown in partner countries, but GDP growth remained strong at 7.8 per cent in FY2023/24Q1, supported by robust domestic demand, it said.

 

Responding to a question, Choueiri noted that political stability is important for investment and growth.

 

'We have not done any quantitative analysis around that to be able to put a number but there is a lot of research that points to the importance of having, political stability and a clear policy environment, not just at the politics level, but in terms of policies for businesses to know what the taxes are going to be what the procedures are going to be. So this kind of transparent and future business environment is also important for investment and growth,' she said.

 

The government has taken a lot of steps to encourage the business environment. 'It's a glass half full, they're still important procedures that are needed to simplify further. But there are important steps that were taken. For example, the single national window, the one-stop shop for companies is a very important one. But still, in many states, there's a lot of bureaucracy that needs to be tackled and streamlined and a lot of red tape. So this is also a work in progress that needs to be continued,' she said.

 

The IMF, she said, believes that there is a need for labour reform.

 

'India has in abundance labour. And Labour is not used to its potential in India. And so, in our view, there has to be a very concerted effort to make sure that the advantages, and demographics in India are played up to the maximum,' she said, adding that this means education, skilling, and increasing female labour force participation.

 

The IMF in its report noted that India’s recent inflation dynamics had not followed the same pattern as in other countries.

 

Observing that the external environment is very tricky and it is not very supportive, Choueiri said: 'We see a lot of risks from fragmentation. We've been pointing those out. We also see more medium-term risks from climate change. Although it’s a slow-moving phenomenon, the impact of climate change, we are seeing them every day through erratic weather patterns. India is significantly impacted by that.'

 

These are important risks that need to be heeded and managed properly, the IMF official said. 'India is doing well. It has tremendous potential. Several important policies need to be addressed to harness that potential,' Choueiri said.

Commerce ministers of India and Oman have asked their negotiators to conclude talks of the proposed free trade agreement at the earliest, an official statement said on Monday. Substantively, negotiations on the text of the India-Oman Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) have been largely completed.

 

On the sidelines of the state visit of the Sultan of Oman, Haitham bin Tarik to India on December 16, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and Minister of Commerce, Industry and Investment Promotion of the Sultanate of Oman Qais Bin Mohammed Al Yousef, held discussions on bilateral trade and investment relations between the two countries here.

 

'The leaders exhorted their respective negotiators to conclude discussions on the remaining issues paving way for early conclusion of India-Oman CEPA negotiations and signing of the agreement,' the commerce ministry said.

 

Both countries have concluded two rounds of talks for a CEPA.

 

In such agreements, two countries either substantially cut or eliminate customs duties on the maximum number of goods traded between them, besides easing norms for promoting trade in services and investments.

 

It was decided that an Oman Desk would be created in Invest India for this purpose. Similarly, Invest Oman would also launch an India Desk.

 

Bilateral trade between the countries grew by 82.64 per cent in 2021-2022 to reach USD 9.99 billion. In 2022-23, it further increased to USD 12.39 billion.

India and the UK will in January next year hold the next round of talks for the proposed free trade agreement (FTA) to resolve remaining issues, the commerce and industry ministry said on Monday.

 

The 13th round of negotiations for the proposed pact was held between September 18 and December 15.

 

'The round included sessions both in person, in London and Delhi, and virtual talks. As with round 12, these negotiations focussed on complex issues including goods, services, and investment,' the ministry said in a statement.

 

The negotiations for the agreement were launched on January 13, 2021.

 

There are 26 chapters in the proposed pact. Talks have been stuck on certain crucial issue of visas, tariffs on whisky and rules of origin.

 

India wants greater access for its skilled professionals from sectors like IT and healthcare in the UK, market access for several goods at nil customs duties and social security agreement in the pact to ensure that employers are saved from making double social security contributions for the same set of employees posted in other countries. The UK’s demand on import duty concessions on electric vehicles, whisky and dairy products, is another sticky issue.

 

'The UK and India will continue to negotiate towards a comprehensive and ambitious

FTA,' the ministry said.

 

India’s imports from the UK in April-October were $4.7 billion while exports were $7.4 billion.

 

India’s main exports to the UK are ready-made garments and textiles, gems and jewellery, engineering goods, petroleum and petrochemical products, while key imports include precious and semi-precious stones, ores and metal scraps, and engineering goods.

 

Discussions are also going on between the countries on the bilateral investment treaty. Investment is being negotiated as a separate agreement and earlier, the plan was to conclude the two simultaneously.

During the first eight months of the financial year, five out of India’s top 10 export destinations — Saudi Arabia, China, the United Kingdom (UK), Australia and the Netherlands — witnessed growth, even as India’s overall exports saw 2.8 per cent contraction, data compiled by the commerce department showed.

 

These 10 countries account for over 49 per cent of India’s merchandise exports.

 

Exports to the Netherlands, which is India’s third largest market, saw 9.6 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth at $13.5 billion during April-November.

 

While disaggregated country-wise trade data was not available till November, the trend in the first seven

Bhutan's King Jigme Khesar Namgyel Wangchuck on Sunday unveiled plans for a mega city project near the Indian border - the Gelephu Special Administration Region (SAR), spreading across 1,000 sq km. The project will link Bhutan economically with Assam to spur regional and sub-regional integration.

 

The SAR, positioned as an economic hub for South Asia, will leverage the connectivity between South Asia and Southeast Asia, according to officials in Bhutan.

 

The project, which has been in planning for several years, will have its own laws and systems, and will invite foreign direct investment and skilled workers from across the globe. Companies will be screened for quality investments. The SAR is expected to generate economic opportunities for both domestic and overseas Bhutanese.

 

During his recent 10-day visit to India, the King discussed the Gelephu project with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The project will be part of the Sarpang district special economic zone and will include an international airport at Gelephu.

 

India and Bhutan are also planning to put in place a 58-km rail link between Gelephu and Kokrajhar in Assam. The possibility of an 18-km rail link between Samtse in Bhutan and Banarhat in West Bengal is also being explored.

 

The Indian Railways has already completed the preliminary engineering-cum-traffic survey for the Kokrajhar-Gelephu link, which will be built with Indian assistance.

 

India has also agreed to permit Bhutanese products to be transported from Haldibari in West Bengal to Chilahati in Bangladesh.

 

In order to strengthen trade infrastructure, India and Bhutan have agreed to upgrade the existing land customs station at Dadgiri in Assam into an integrated check post with India's support, and to develop facilities at Gelephu on the Bhutanese side.

 

The two sides have further agreed to designate Darranga in Assam and Samdrup Jongkhar in Bhutan as the sites for immigration check posts to facilitate the entry and exit of third country nationals by the land route for enhancing connectivity and promoting tourism.

India has assured countries who are ready to promote millets to partner with them to share the country’s experience in different spheres, be it technology or cuisines. Acknowledging that the International Year of Millets (IYM) celebrated in 2023 has led to widespread awareness of millets and increased their consumption globally, India has also appealed to the ASEAN countries to get a first hand experience on the country’s success stories in millets.

 

'Our outreach initiatives have been spectacular, reaching over 57 crore individuals. From international conferences and culinary festivals to exhibitions and awareness campaigns, every effort has been directed towards making IYM a mass movement,' said agriculture minister Arjun Munda.

 

Inaugurating a two-day conference and exhibition of millets on the outskirts of Delhi, Munda said the concerted effort transcended boundaries and transformed IYM into a global milestone of unparalleled significance. Due to IYM, there has been investment in extension services along with research and development, which has also motivated stakeholders to increase the productivity, quality and associated production methods of these Shree Anna, he said.

 

Climate smart crop

'In the face of global challenges of climate change, the importance of grains increases even more. Millet is an ancient grain and its speciality is that it is small, but nutritious and provides strength to the body. Millet has the power to revolutionise our approach to agriculture, climate and food security,' Munda said.

 

Further, the minister said that millet is not only the bearer of a rich cultural heritage but also offers a sustainable solution that matches the current concerns. The ability of these grains to address key Sustainable Development Goals, including zero hunger, good health and well-being, sustainable consumption and production, and climate action, position millets as indispensable resources for developing countries.

 

As millet has the ability to thrive in diverse environments, requiring minimum resources while providing maximum nutritional benefits, adopting it in the diet is not just about nourishing oneself, rather, it is about nourishing the earth, promoting sustainable agricultural practices, and ensuring a healthier, more secure future for future generations, Munda said.

 

'Millets are a beacon of hope for our farming communities, which provide stability in uncertain climate and empowers our farmers with favourable yield and sustainable income. Known for its minimal water requirements, low carbon footprint and ability to thrive in drought conditions, these grains truly meets the criteria of climate friendly crops,' he said.

 

Also in view of the increasing demand for vegetarian, gluten-free food, millet offers alternative food systems, he added.

 

The Indian Mission to ASEAN in collaboration with the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare is organising the two-day millet festival during December 14-15. There is also a parallel exhibition of millet-based products on display by over 40 farmer producer organisations (FPOs) and start-ups. A Business-to-Business (B2B) meeting is planned for the second day, which will be organised by APEDA. This meeting will be an interactive platform fostering engagement between businesses from India and the ASEAN member countries to facilitate participants in exploring synergies and commercial opportunities across geographic boundaries.

Alcoholic beverages makers' body CIABC on Sunday sought greater market access for domestic products in the European markets and removal of non-tariff barriers to boost exports. Confederation of Indian Alcoholic Beverage Companies (CIABC) said that the EU should remove the non-tariff barriers which prevent the vast majority of Indian products from being sold in their market.

 

The free trade deal with the EU (European Union) on alcoholic beverages should be no different from the UK, negotiations for which are currently underway, CIABC said in a statement.

 

It added that the conditions that for a product to qualify as a whisky, it must be matured for a period not less than three years; and for brandy, one year, should not be applicable for products made in India, where climate is warm and maturation happens fast.

 

'It has been highlighted several times, along with scientific substantiations, that such long maturation is not applicable under warm Indian climate. We believe that it is effectively a non-tariff barrier since long maturation increases the cost of Indian products by 30-40 per cent as spirit evaporates 10-15 per cent every year under Indian climate (compared 1-2 per cent in Europe),' CIABC Director General Vinod Giri said.

 

He also said that the cost of capital deployed during maturation in India is high (8-10 per cent per annum) as compared to 2-3 per cent for Europe.

 

'We firmly believe that if the EU does not repeal the law pertaining to the maturation, any trade agreement will be one-sided favouring only the EU and will do nothing for the Indian industry,' he added.

 

Giri further said that as the EU and the UK have tax-free trade, the proposed free trade agreements with the EU should be no different from the one with the UK.

 

'If the deals agreed are any different, one can expect the trade to start using the more favourable route without any incremental cost or control,' he cautioned.

 

He said that India should offer the EU the same deal which is eventually agreed with the UK on spirits, and what has been agreed with Australia on wines.

 

'India should not offer any concessions if the EU does not open up its market for Indian products by repealing rules pertaining to maturation,' Giri added.

India will look to convince the United States (US) that the reimbursements claimed under the Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products (RoDTEP) do not violate the World Trade Organisation (WTO) principles, a senior government official said.

 

The move comes days after Washington imposed a countervailing or anti-subsidy duty on a few Indian products in retaliation against the RoDTEP scheme introduced for outbound shipments in January 2021.

 

Countervailing duties are imposed on imported goods to offset the embedded subsidies that exporters of a particular country avail. 

 

'Concerning the US…since we have a regional cooperation agreement with them, we have

Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Haitham bin Tarik, the Sultan of Oman, on Saturday adopted a new 'India-Oman joint vision, a partnership for future' focusing on ten essential areas, heralding a new chapter in the strategic partnership between the two nations.

 

The joint vision document identifies a range of areas such as maritime cooperation and connectivity, energy security and green energy, space, technologies, and applications, digital payments and financial cooperation, trade and Investment, health, tourism and hospitality, IT & innovation, as well as agriculture and food security with specific action points as part of the future roadmap to deepen ties between both countries for implementation.

 

'India and Oman have had an unbreakable bond of deep friendship for centuries. At one end of the Arabian Sea is India and at the other end is Oman. Our mutual closeness is not limited to geography, but is also reflected in our trade spanning thousands of years, our culture, and our common priorities,' Modi said in his opening remarks during delegation level talks with the Sultan.

 

'On the strength of this glorious history, we are building a bright future ahead. Today we are adopting a new ‘India-Oman Joint Vision – A Partnership for Future’. In this Joint Vision, concrete action-points have been agreed upon on 10 different areas. I am confident that this joint vision will give a new and modern shape to our partnership,' Modi pointed out.

 

This is the first visit to India by a Sultan of Oman after 26 years and the gesture is significant as it signals support to India amid the Israel-Palestine conflict. The two sides also signed five MoUs including one between the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) India and the National Centre for Financial Information (NCFI) Oman on cooperation in the exchange of intelligence related to money laundering, associated predicate offences and terrorism financing. Other MoUs focus on culture and information technology.

 

The two sides also held discussions to advance the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) agreement, which would be India’s second such pact in the Gulf after the UAE.

 

'I am glad that discussions on the CEPA agreement are ongoing between the two sides. Two rounds of these talks have been successfully completed in which consensus has been reached on many important issues. I hope that we will be able to sign this agreement soon, which will add a new chapter to our economic cooperation,' Modi noted.

 

The two Leaders at the Summit strongly condemned terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. They agreed that there cannot be any justification for any act of terror for any reason whatsoever. They affirmed their commitment to enhancing cooperation to combat terrorism and underscored the significance of fostering the universal values of peace, moderation, coexistence, and tolerance while highlighting the imperative of renouncing all types of violent extremism.

 

The PM pointed out that even at the global level, India and Oman have been moving forward in close coordination. 'Oman, as a guest country, has made a very valuable contribution to the success of India's G20 presidency.'

 

The PM also referred to Indian expatriates in Oman and their strong bonds there. 'A large number of people of Indian origin consider Oman as their second home. These people are live examples of our close ties and our friendship.'

 

Oman is India's oldest strategic and defence partner in the Gulf region which has given New Delhi access to the strategically located Duqm Port.

The government is exploring a technology tool developed by ecommerce major Amazon called Johari to reduce wastage of fresh fruits and vegetables at its warehouses and retail outlets.

 

A pilot project at some of Mother Dairy-owned Safal stores across Delhi and Bengaluru is on the anvil.

 

Johari uses computer vision models and wi-fi-enabled internet-of-things (IoT) cameras to identify pre-determined defects-cuts, cracks and other damages-in fresh produce.

 

These cameras are strategically placed on store shelves or sites where produce is stored. They automatically capture images of the crates at periodic intervals, allowing for continuous monitoring of the quality of the fresh produce.

 

'The government is always open to new ideas. We will do the cost analysis and ensure that the technology is scalable as well as viable for the government, based on which we can do a pilot in select outlets,' a senior government official told ET, requesting anonymity.

 

This development comes after a recent closed-door meeting between officials of government policy think-tank NITI Aayog and Amazon to discuss the efficacy of Johari.

 

The Centre mostly procures foodgrains to be sold at subsidised rates and to maintain a buffer. Besides, it procures onions in large quantities and at times tomatoes to keep prices in check and maintain a demand-supply balance. It also sells fresh fruits, vegetables and other perishables through Safal stores under the National Dairy Development Board.

 

Rajeev Rastogi, vice president, machine learning at Amazon, confirmed to ET the meeting held with NITI Aayog officials to get Johari deployed in government-owned centres.

 

In August this year, Amazon India launched the shelf monitoring solution Johari to ensure that only fresh quality fruits and vegetables are delivered to customers.

 

Automated monitoring using IoT cameras reduces the need for manual inspection, saving time and labour costs in the quality control process, the company said. The technology provides real-time information, enabling prompt decision-making and action to maintain the freshness of the produce, it said.

 

Cost of Deployment

 

The deployment cost of the shelf-life monitoring technology encompasses several factors. To optimise image viewing on each shelf, the recommended approach entails deploying one low-cost IoT camera per shelf, ensuring a practical and effective monitoring solution that is scalable, Rastogi said. According to him, the selected IoT cameras are priced at approximately $25 each for 5 megapixel and $20 for 3 megapixel, making them highly cost-effective for deployment at scale.

 

The estimated cost for deploying the camera in each store can range from Rs 2,600 to Rs 3,300 per camera, encompassing the cost of the IoT cameras with nearly 50% import duties, he said. There are other costs for required cloud computing infrastructure and usage of quality models as a service depending on the scale and usage, he added.

 

The technology identifies the region of the defect on the product surface area and can also calculate dimensions such as ratio of the length/area of the defect with respect to the length and area, he explained. The total deployment cost is contingent on the number of Safal stores in each region and the number of shelves required to be monitored, he clarified. Each shelf will require one camera for monitoring assuming a standard crate size.

 

The upfront deployment costs are offset by the technology's capability to mitigate food waste, enhance quality assurance and elevate overall customer satisfaction, he argued. Johari works in two monitoring modes-manual and automated. Manual monitoring lets Amazon India's sellers or operators submit a picture of the produce in a crate from their phone. The shelf monitoring solution then analyses the image using grading logic to highlight any item that does not meet quality standards, Rastogi explained. He said that the app can also be used to understand specific defects for each item and the whole process takes six seconds. In the automated monitoring option, cameras on shelves take pictures at predetermined intervals and analyse quality through the above process, he said.